In Search of an Endgame:
“Crisis in North Korea”
by Professor Robert Hinckley,
Faculty Fellow in Political Science, and,
Caley Albert,
Political Science 7 Honors Student
Approximately eight hours ago, a massive explosion occurred in the vicinity of the highly secretive Yongbyon nuclear reactor facility in North Korea. Although little detail is known about specific activities at Yongbyon, it is generally accepted that this facility is the center of North Korea's nuclear program. Preliminary, and still unconfirmed, reports have indicated that there are hundreds and possibly thousands of casualties at the site, which would suggest an accident of some sort has occurred. It is unknown whether it is a true accident, or whether it is a result of a planned test gone awry.
hinkley
Profesor Robert Hinkely
What would happen if an explosion occurred at a North Korean nuclear reactor facility? How exactly would the international community resolve such a crisis? These were the questions faced by the students of this year’s Political Science 7, Introduction to International Relations, Honors Section.
The simulation, “Crisis in North Korea,” is based on a hypothetical story about an accident at a North Korean nuclear facility. Last year ten honors students in Introduction to International Relations participated in the exercise. Each student was assigned to represent one of the countries negotiating over the future of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The simulation concluded with a nuclear exchange on the Korean peninsula, the exact opposite outcome of what the students expected. For this reason Prof. Hinckley was a bit surprised when he received more than a dozen requests to repeat the simulation this quarter. With the support of the Honors Program, more than twenty honors students attempted to settle the crisis once again without going to war.
Political Science 7 is a survey of contemporary global welfare and security issues. The course is primarily concerned with patterns of cooperation and contention among the principal actors in world politics. From the instructor’s perspective, one of the greatest challenges is to convey the true difficulty of sustaining international cooperation. It is especially difficult to illustrate how decision-makers often blunder into conflict when faced with uncertainty and limited information.
The “Crisis in North Korea” simulation drives home this point, emphasizing the stress put on decision-makers during time sensitive situations. The exercise places students in the middle of a crisis situation and asks them to make policy decisions with little background information and that could have serious consequences for decades to come. The North Koreans began the simulation by portraying the accident at Yongbyon as a “natural gas explosion.” Intelligence gathered by outside parties is limited by adverse weather conditions and the closed nature of North Korean society. To make matters worse, none of the teams know how many weapons are in the North Korean arsenal.
In this environment of heightened uncertainty, each student is assigned to one country involved in the “six party talks,” including China, Russia, Japan, the United States, South Korea and North Korea. Each team formulates a strategy by analyzing their own strengths and weaknesses and then conducting background research on the economic and military capacities of the other states. Within the on-line simulation environment, teams can send diplomatic messages, extend economic or technical assistance, and initiate military actions to any country of their choosing. Country teams must use these tools to resolve the crisis and protect their own national interests as best they can.
Students in Political Science 7 raise their hands to help avert a "crisis."
Global News Network: Osaka
High radiation levels have been detected on the Chinese and South Korean sides of the border with North Korea. Chinese scientists fear that the contamination could spread across much of northeast China, and possibly extend as far south as Beijing itself. Lower levels of contamination have been detected in South Korea, although Seoul is likely to be affected within hours.
Panic has started along these borders, and despite efforts to maintain order there are reports of massive refugee flows within the region. The situation is becoming increasingly chaotic as refugees arrive in towns and cities that are unable to offer food and shelter on such a large scale. Rioting and looting have been reported in several locations, overwhelming local authorities and law enforcement efforts.
Although this is an academic game, and the situation is hypothetical, students find the scenario compelling because it realistically demonstrates the issues faced by states in high intensity, crisis situations. As one honors student, Daniel, put it, “This simulation has more twists and turns than a reality TV show!” What began as a humanitarian crisis quickly took on added complexity due to the shifting alliances made among states behind “closed doors.” Will the North Koreas accept aid before another explosion occurs? Can the Chinese and Russians tolerate an American solution to the crisis? Will offers of aid be accepted? This year, as in the past, the outcome of the simulation ultimately rests on one choice: Will the United States use military force to disarm North Korea?
Student disccusses course with Professor Hinckley.
Diplomatic Communiqué: United States and her allies to North Korea
North Korea has two days to accept outside containment efforts and formally agree to dismantle their entire nuclear weapons program, as well as submit to UN weapons inspections. North Korea's decision not to disclose its nuclear activities has already led to mass devastation, affecting millions of people in a multitude of nations. This weapons program may no longer be considered an internal affair, as it has proven itself to be an international problem. This is unacceptable on many grounds, and so we can no long in good conscience remain silent. Noncompliance will result in immediate and severe retaliation.
As the simulation crisis reached its peak, country teams regularly held meetings to discuss strategies to solve the crisis and advance their team’s national interests. A Nic's coffee shop, the library, and after lecture, honors students debated their next move. The search for a satisfactory end to the crisis proved to be a period of great creativity and frustration. Students proposed an amazing array of solutions including: assassination attempts, complex aid treaties, new multi-party talks, and limited military strikes. Would any of these gambits actually work?
Global News Network: Osaka
The United States has launched air strikes against suspected nuclear weapons storage facilities in North Korea. Preliminary reports indicate that many of the targets were destroyed by the attacks, while the attacking planes suffered minimal losses. Casualties on the ground are said to be heavy, including a number of civilian locations struck by stray munitions. What remains unclear to outside observers, however, is how many nuclear devices remain.
Once again this quarter the simulation ended in a nuclear exchange between the United States and North Korea. The North Korean government responded to U.S. air strikes by detonating a nuclear device on South Korean soil. To be sure, everyone is disappointed with the results because none of the teams planned a strategy that involved the deployment of nuclear weapons. However, interestingly enough, the situation has ended in a nuclear exchange two years in a row, begging the question - how can the world solve such a crisis without resorting to war?
For now the question remains unanswered; nonetheless, all of us are glad to have shared the experience. We've learned a great deal about the frustrating impact of uncertain negotiations, the need for restraint by leaders in a crisis situation, and the difficulty of sustaining cooperation. In the end, academic games are not about winning and losing- but about learning to problem solve creatively and, in the end, to put our ideas to the test.
Professor Robert Hinckley, Faculty Fellow in Political Science.
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